The Corner

Lessons from 2010

The Winston Group, a Republican polling firm, sums up the lessons of the 2010 election in a statement to the press. According to the group’s post-election survey, both President Obama’s and congressional Republicans’ electoral strategies worked: The president goaded liberals into turning out, and Republicans convinced independents to join conservatives down the ballot. Despite successful execution of both strategies, however, one was clearly superior:

Key Democrat base voters including liberal Democrats, women, African Americans and urban voters increased their participation from the 2006 election. Younger voters and Hispanics matched their 2006 turnout. Despite a better base turnout than 2006, however, Democrats lost by a 7 point margin. . . .

In the 2010 election, Republicans won Independents by 19 points and made historic gains with important voter groups including women, Hispanics, suburban voters, Catholics, middle-income (50-75K) voters, and seniors.

The survey also suggests the country has moved rightward:

From 1984 through 2008, moderates never made up less than 40% of the electorate and conservatives never made up more than 40%. In 2010, moderates fell to 38% and conservatives went to 42%(Exit Poll). Rather than an unusually large increase in conservative turnout or a significant number of new, more conservative voters, this change represented a serious shift of voters to the right (New Models).

Thus, neither the Democratic nor the Republican party has a big enough base to win an election on its own, and the GOP can draw enough independent support if it focuses on the right issues, the firm concludes.

Most Popular

Elections

Lying Liz

Ever since she began explaining how her Medicare for all plan would be funded, and how she would pass it, Elizabeth Warren has been sinking. Ahead of last week’s debate, her camp leaked a story that her friend Bernie Sanders met with her in 2018 to discuss plans for 2020, and that at this meeting, Sanders had ... Read More
Elections

Lying Liz

Ever since she began explaining how her Medicare for all plan would be funded, and how she would pass it, Elizabeth Warren has been sinking. Ahead of last week’s debate, her camp leaked a story that her friend Bernie Sanders met with her in 2018 to discuss plans for 2020, and that at this meeting, Sanders had ... Read More
Politics & Policy

The Botched Democratic Case for Witnesses

The fate of the republic, we are now supposed to believe, hinges on whether there are witnesses at a Senate impeachment trial. Upon the long-anticipated transmittal of the articles of impeachment to the Senate, House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler said if the upper chamber doesn’t obtain the witnesses and ... Read More
Politics & Policy

The Botched Democratic Case for Witnesses

The fate of the republic, we are now supposed to believe, hinges on whether there are witnesses at a Senate impeachment trial. Upon the long-anticipated transmittal of the articles of impeachment to the Senate, House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler said if the upper chamber doesn’t obtain the witnesses and ... Read More