If the Russian Federation is a great power, its clout is based on a three-legged stool: nukes, the Russian army, and energy.
Of course, the war in Ukraine has shown the Russian army to be a corrupt, hollowed-out mess, and, while nuclear arms are indeed Russia’s ace in the hole, the problem with resorting to atomic-age weaponry is that their use is the equivalent to pushing all one’s chips to the center of the table.
So that leaves Russia’s most versatile sword and shield: energy.
As Andrew Stuttaford writes in the new issue of National Review, “It made some sense for Moscow to assume that merely brandishing its energy weapon would limit the European response to an attack on Ukraine.”
Both NATO and the EU included member states known for their less-than-robust approach to defense, or for attitudes toward Russia that ranged from the naïve to the not unsympathetic. A “reminder” to those most dependent on Russia for their energy requirements . . . would surely persuade them — to the extent that they needed persuading — to stay on the sidelines in the event of a “special military operation.”
But the Russians — despite supplying Germany with as much as 55 percent of its gas, one third of its oil, and 50 percent of its coal — didn’t get their way, at least initially.
To the Kremlin’s chagrin, the Europeans have — through fits and starts — acquiesced to direct and indirect support for Ukraine and heavy sanctions on Russia for its aggression. The tit for tat has proceeded through the summer and into the fall: The Russians have tightened the screws by closing pipelines for “routine maintenance” and never reopening them; the Europeans are considering harsher measures while scrambling to find alternative, non-Russian sources of gas.
The “signs of damage already inflicted by higher energy costs,” Stuttaford writes, “are hard to miss.” Inflation is up nearly 10 percent euro-zone wide, interest rates are up, and manufacturers are closing shop: “According to Eurometaux, 50 percent of the EU’s aluminum and zinc capacity has been ‘forced offline.’” There shouldn’t be any shock that “both U.K. and euro-zone consumer-confidence levels are at their lowest since records began.”
How did our European friends get into this mess? Carbon-neutral environmental fanaticism and shortsightedness.
Stuttaford explains it all in “How Europe Invited Its Energy Crisis.”
Beginning some 15 years ago, Europe, led by Germany, began its march toward a carbon-neutral economy. “Europe’s ‘race to net zero’ greenhouse-gas emissions would, it was claimed, be accomplished not only (relatively) painlessly, but rapidly.”
Unfortunately, the moves to shutter nuclear-power generation and embrace unreliable renewable-energy sources such as wind and solar have “embedded the energy insecurity that may have helped Russia believe that it could get away with the major European war that, to many Western Europeans, was an impossibility in the rules-based 21st century of their collective imagination.”
Read the whole thing here.
Of course, we’re also just five weeks out from a pivotal midterm election.
In this issue, we have it covered:
- Michael Brendan Dougherty looked at how Ron DeSantis is running for reelection in Florida with one eye on 2024.
- Ryan Mills traveled to Georgia, asking if the Peach State is ready to elect a senator Herschel Walker.
- John J. Miller reported from Michigan on whether Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown fanaticism has made her vulnerable to Tudor Dixon’s challenge.
- And Luther Abel traveled the Cheesehead State to stake out the chances that Ron Johnson can win a third term and help turn the U.S. Senate red.
If you’re a subscriber, you already have access to read the new issue here.
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