The Corner

In Louisiana, 95 Percent of Obama 2012 Black Voters Skip Early Voting

Louisiana senator Mary Landrieu and state Democrats have convinced less than 15,000 of the 269,000 black voters, or about 5.5 percent, who usually do not vote in midterms to cast their ballot in the early-voting period so far.

Twenty-eight percent of the 154,000 early votes cast as of Saturday evening were cast by voters who usually do not vote in midterm elections, according to Louisiana political analyst John Couvillon.

The information released by the state reveals that 14,802 of those ballots were cast by black voters who have not voted since November of 2012 (they skipped the state’s December 2012 Senate runoff and the state-level elections in 2013). Nationally, 93 percent of black voters in 2012 supported President Obama, which suggests that Landrieu banked about 14,000 votes that typically elude Democrats in off-year elections. In 2012, 617,000 black voters went to the polls in Louisiana, after just 348,000 black voters turned out in 2010. Per Couvillon’s analysis of the early-voting figures, about 254,000 of those voters have ignored Obama’s pleas.

“When you’re talking about a likely electorate of 1.3 to 1.4 million, she got a one percent advantage from the early vote,” Couvillon, founder of JMC Analytics and Polling, tells National Review Online.

President Obama has tried to drive turnout among the black voters who typically only vote in presidential elections by emphasizing how Landrieu and other Democrats have supported him, despite the risk that such statements will make the most enthusiastic voters oppose the red-state incumbents.

“A lot of the states that are contested this [fall] are states that I didn’t win,” Obama told Al Sharpton recently. “And so some of the candidates there, you know, it is difficult for them to have me in the state because the Republicans will use that to try to fan Republican turnout. The bottom line is, though, these are all folks who vote with me — they have supported my agenda in Congress.”

That doesn’t guarantee that Landrieu loses, though, as voters tune in for the expected runoff between the incumbent and Representative Bill Cassidy (R., La.). Whereas you might expect a drop-off in turnout during a runoff, Louisiana voters have come to regard the runoff as the real competition between Democrats and Republicans.

“Primaries in Louisiana are kind of seen as a preseason,” Timmy Teepell, a political adviser to Governor Bobby Jindal (R., La.), tells NRO. “Republicans should not underestimate Mary Landrieu.”

Most Popular

Elections

Bernie’s Huge Victory

Bernie had a massive night in Nevada, with a diverse nomination-winning-type coalition. According to the entrance poll, he won whites and Hispanics and did well among blacks. He won men and women. He won college graduates and did particularly well with non-college graduates. He won Democrats and independents. ... Read More
Elections

Bernie’s Huge Victory

Bernie had a massive night in Nevada, with a diverse nomination-winning-type coalition. According to the entrance poll, he won whites and Hispanics and did well among blacks. He won men and women. He won college graduates and did particularly well with non-college graduates. He won Democrats and independents. ... Read More

Elon Musk’s Plan to Settle Mars

He who follows Freedom, let him leave his homeland, and risk his life. — Adam Mickiewicz, Polish poet, 1832 Last week my wife Hope and I traveled to Boca Chica, Texas, to meet with Elon Musk. While we talked inside the SpaceX onsite headquarters, a mariachi band played outside, providing entertainment for ... Read More

Elon Musk’s Plan to Settle Mars

He who follows Freedom, let him leave his homeland, and risk his life. — Adam Mickiewicz, Polish poet, 1832 Last week my wife Hope and I traveled to Boca Chica, Texas, to meet with Elon Musk. While we talked inside the SpaceX onsite headquarters, a mariachi band played outside, providing entertainment for ... Read More
U.S.

Women’s Sports Should Be Women’s Sports

Transgender sports policies make a mockery of women’s competition. Just look at the state of Connecticut. At the 2018 state open for women’s track and field, two young men identifying as transgender took first and second place in the 100m race. Their participation not only deprived young women of their ... Read More
U.S.

Women’s Sports Should Be Women’s Sports

Transgender sports policies make a mockery of women’s competition. Just look at the state of Connecticut. At the 2018 state open for women’s track and field, two young men identifying as transgender took first and second place in the 100m race. Their participation not only deprived young women of their ... Read More
Elections

Bernie’s Houses

Mike Bloomberg scored a hit -- a palpable hit -- in the debate this week when he pointed back at Bernie Sanders and said: “What a wonderful country we have, the best-known socialist in the country happens to be a millionaire with three houses.” Many conservatives laughed and cheered and wondered why Bernie ... Read More
Elections

Bernie’s Houses

Mike Bloomberg scored a hit -- a palpable hit -- in the debate this week when he pointed back at Bernie Sanders and said: “What a wonderful country we have, the best-known socialist in the country happens to be a millionaire with three houses.” Many conservatives laughed and cheered and wondered why Bernie ... Read More

Escape from Wuhan

The onset of the crisis in Wuhan startled me like a jump scare in a horror movie. You’ve seen the kind I mean. The audience is led to believe that the monster, psycho killer—or what have you—pursuing the intended victim is still distant. Then whatever it is stands up from behind, leaps out in front, bursts ... Read More

Escape from Wuhan

The onset of the crisis in Wuhan startled me like a jump scare in a horror movie. You’ve seen the kind I mean. The audience is led to believe that the monster, psycho killer—or what have you—pursuing the intended victim is still distant. Then whatever it is stands up from behind, leaps out in front, bursts ... Read More