The Field Poll estimates that, for the first time in California’s history, more than half of the ballots in today’s statewide general election will arrive by mail. Accordingly, any last-minute advertising will not have the same kind of impact that it might have had a few years ago.
Field also reckons a turnout of 9.5 million voters: 55 percent of registered voters and 40.6 percent of all citizen-eligible adults. As Jim Sanders notes, 12 of the past 13 gubernatorial elections in the state have had higher turnouts of registered voters. The conventional wisdom holds that low turnout favors Republicans. We’ll see tonight.