The White House messaging on Iran — or more specifically, the president’s — flips back and forth between two settings.
The White House messaging on Iran — or more specifically, the president’s — flips back and forth between two settings: bold declarations that the Iranians have capitulated, or have opened up the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian regime immediately denies; and then a threat to hit Iran much, much harder than it has been hit so far. This morning, President Trump acknowledged that the Iranians were firing on ships in the strait, which three days ago he said was “FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.”
In light of this, it’s hard to get all that excited when the president announces some giant new Iranian concession. The Iranian regime lies, a lot, and Trump has a propensity to hear what he wants to hear.
You may have also noticed that the president regularly assures us that the war is almost over . . . and it has been almost over for several weeks.
- On March 25, Trump said, “We’ve won this. This war has been won. The only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news.”
- In Trump’s April 1 White House address, the president said “the core strategic objectives are nearing completion. . . . We are going to finish the job and we’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close.”
- Announcing the cease-fire on April 7, Trump said on Truth Social, “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives.”
- A day later, Trump told a reporter that the war was a “total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it.”
- Trump told Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo on April 14, “I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over.”
- At an event in Las Vegas on April 16, Trump said, “The war in Iran is going along swimmingly. It should be ending pretty soon.”
Is the war close to being over? It would appear to be over when the remaining Iranian military command-and-control either no longer wants to fire missiles and drones at ships in the Persian Gulf or no longer has the capacity to do so. The performance of the U.S. military has been superlative, and the capacities of the Iranian military are, no doubt, significantly diminished. But unless all those oil tankers and other ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested, well, then the war isn’t really over, is it?