The Corner

Luntz’s Focus Group

This is purely a methodological question. If the reporting on blacks said they were torn between the candidates I wouldn’t be asking this question. But his focus group is allegedly a collection of “swing voters” from Virginia. And it appears there are a relatively large number of blacks in the focus group. I keep reading that blacks are supporting Obama somewhere between 95 and 99 percent. So, purely as a statistical matter, how do you explain having — by my very rough guestimate — 10% of Luntz’s swing voters being black? I’m just curious.

Update: Some interesting email. From a reliably angry leftwing reader who sees no reason to use, you know, facts or arguments:

stick to being a schmuck leave statistics and polling to statisticians

And from another reader:

Arlington voted for Kerry by a 68 to 31 margin in 2004.  Kerry carried 48 of the locality’s 48 precincts.  There are virtually no swing voters there.  The Republican Party there is more like a mission.

And, again, from another reader:

What’s really laughable about Luntz “focus group” is the idea that you can find “uncommitted voters” in Arlington, Virginia.  I live in Virginia.  And there are virtually no uncommitted voters in Arlington.  They are (almost) all government employees looking for more from Daddy D.C.  It is the bluest of blue areas in Virginia.  What a joke.

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