Republican senator Susan Collins and Democrat Sara Gideon are nearly tied in a new SurveyUSA poll that was conducted October 23-27. On the initial ballot test, Collins garners 45 percent to Gideon’s 46 percent. But Maine has ranked-choice voting, which means third-party votes are reallocated to those voters’ second and third choices if no candidate gets an outright majority, and Gideon leads Collins 51 percent to 49 percent after those votes are redistributed.
The same poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 53 percent to 40 percent in Maine. FiveThirtyEight gives Collins a two-in-five chance of winning reelection.