Last night, Marist University’s latest polling was released from NBC and the Wall Street Journal. And as predictable as my dog wanting to go for a walk after dinner, they delivered polls for Obama that not only defy logic, but even beat the results from some Democrat-leaning pollsters.
In Ohio, Marist/NBC/WSJ finds Obama up by six, 51–45, unchanged from just after the first debate. The Democratic party-ID advantage in this poll was nine points. Nine. By my calculations, Democrats held a five-point advantage in party ID in the wave election of 2008, following a five-point advantage for Republicans in 2004. Essentially Marist is finding that Democrats are not only going to match their turnout advantage from 2008, but they are actually going to almost double it. That lines up well with Romney drawing 30,000 to a rally in Ohio while Obama pulled just a fraction for his rallies. Or not.
This is not a one-time incident for Marist either. Every poll in Ohio this year has been the best result for Obama of all the polls there in the given time frame. Their last four Ohio poll results (including this one) have been: O+6, O+6, O+8, and O+7. Seeing Marist being consistently more pro-Obama than every other pollster must send quite a thrill up Chris Matthews’s leg; they push the narrative of Obama’s inevitability so long as he can get turnout that crushes their 2008 perfect storm.
Not to be outdone, Marist also has Obama up two points in Florida, 49-047. This is up from a one-point Obama lead after the first debate, and shows the smallest movement from registered to likely voters for Romney of their last four polls (only a one-point drop in Obama’s lead compared to three to four points in the previous three polls). That dynamic suggests that Marist senses that enthusiasm among Democrats is now matching that of Republicans. Of course, that goes against all other polls, the Gallup and Pew likely-voter surveys, and all anecdotal evidence, but Marist isn’t going to stop now.
In Florida, Marist has not shown a Romney lead all year. Of the last 21 Florida polls on Real Clear Politics, Obama has led in only five. Of those five polls, two are from Marist/NBC/WSJ. This lastest poll also has Obama’s biggest lead in Florida since before the first debate.
While many pollsters have had questionable leanings this year, Marist/NBC/WSJ polls have been so solidly favorable to Obama that they would probably make his campaign’s internals seem like a let-down. With the headlines that NBC and the Wall Street Journal promote based on these polls, you’d think Romney was down by at least a whole point nationally. Apparently Romney is going to make history by running even on the national vote while losing every swing state by more than McCain did in 2008 when he lost by seven points nationall. And, no, that’s not my prediction — that’s the latest math from Marist University and their counterparts at NBC/Wall Street Journal. If you can explain why that adds up, you just might have a future with NBC News.