Peter Savodnik reports that rules changes in Michigan and Washington state should increase conservative strength in the presidential primaries. Franklin Foer thinks that’s bad news for McCain. I’m not so sure. First of all, McCain may get more conservative votes than he did in 2000. Second, closed primaries may help him avoid his mistakes in 2000. In that year, he did a great job of appealing to independent and crossover Democratic voters. But (if I recall correctly) he only won a plurality of Republican voters in New Hampshire, and that just barely.
Given that pattern, and the fact that most of the primaries were closed, the only way McCain could win was to score such a devastating victory in the early open primary of New Hampshire that Bush’s candidacy was proven to be a popped bubble. When Bush bounced back in South Carolina, it was obvious that Bush’s strength wasn’t purely a function of his perceived inevitability, and also obvious (at least to me) that he was going to beat McCain. McCain’s later win in Michigan, although it got political observers very excited, was meaningless. It didn’t alter the basic dynamics of the race. Continuing to win independents and Democrats while losing Republicans would not get him the nomination.
A McCain running in more closed primaries will be a more conservative McCain, but that may be the McCain who can win the nomination.