Ok, I went back and asked about MD. Unfortunately, the internals are looking like the public polls–8 points or so up for Cardin. There is some thought that the polls are missing what might be happening among African-Americans in PG County, the theory Jonah mentioned earlier. But Steele apparently has never been up in any of the nightly tracks, unlike Kean and even Chafee, which worries Republicans.
A Republican strategist told me this about Steele a week or so ago, before the PG endorsements might have shaken this one up: Steele would win if he were running in pretty much any other state, and even win in MD if he were running any other year. He’s just got some strong head-winds to contend with this time.
But it’s still one to watch, obviously, and maybe the polling is flawed.