Gallup has Romney and Obama tied at 47 percent among registered voters today.
The Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost notes that despite Democrats’ current confidence and Republicans’ nervousness, certain historical measures indicate Obama still has significant challenges and he’s weaker than previous incumbents who’ve gone on to win.
Below are, on the left, the mid-September Gallup poll results provided by Cost. Next to those figures, I’ve listed the final popular vote percentages received by such incumbents:
(2012) 47 — ?
(2004) 53 — 50.6
(1996) 55 — 49.2
(1992) 42 — 37.1
(1984) 58 — 58.5
(1980) 39 — 41
(1976) 40 — 48
(1972) 61 — 60.2
(1964) 62 — 61.1
(1956) 52 — 57.4
Make of it what you will.