Rich and Eliana, I can’t add much to your discussion of Scott Walker’s recent stumbles, but for what it’s worth, over the last century or so, Midwestern governors have made lousy presidential candidates. The last governor or ex-governor of a Midwestern state to be elected president was William McKinley, of Ohio, in 1896 and 1900; since then, Midwestern governors are 0–4 as major-party nominees, while governors from the rest of the country are 16–8 (counting Theodore Roosevelt as a loss in 1912):
WINNERS
G. W. Bush (R., Texas) 2–0
Clinton (D., Ark.) 2–0
Reagan (R., Calif.) 2–0
Carter (D., Ga.) 1–1
F. Roosevelt (D., N.Y.) 4–0
Coolidge (R., Mass.) 1–0
Wilson (D., N.J.) 2–0
T. Roosevelt (R., N.Y.) 2–1
LOSERS
Romney (R., Mass.) 0–1
Dukakis (D., Mass.) 0–1
Stevenson (D., Ill.) 0–2
Dewey (R., N.Y.) 0–2
Landon (R., Kans.) 0–1
Smith (D., N.Y.) 0–1
Cox (D., Ohio) 0–1
Hughes (R., N.Y.) 0–1
I’m not sure what to make of all this. There’s the “good place to be from” theory, in which you learn hard work as a Midwestern child and then achieve fortune and fame elsewhere; Reagan is an example of this, but Mitt Romney and Thomas Dewey were both originally Michigan boys and they lost, so go figure. The only other Midwestern governor ever to be elected president was Rutherford Hayes, also of Ohio, in 1876, so perhaps the Buckeye State is the key. How is John Kasich’s campaign going?