MLB is chasing a potential fan base that doesn’t exist, with ‘fixes’ that make little sense and change fundamental aspects of the game.
Look how far they had to zoom in on the y-axis of this graph to make MLB game length look like a huge problem:
MLB approved a series of new rules in September in part to make baseball more appealing to those turned off by its lack of action and leisurely tempo.
“I think you’re going to see a game that moves along with more pace,” Commissioner Rob Manfred said.https://t.co/2iZicKRswc pic.twitter.com/gh3W9gaZ4S
— AP Sports (@AP_Sports) February 20, 2023
That’s an increase of only eleven minutes over the past 20 years. And it’s not even a consistent increase, with game length seeing sharp declines in 2003, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Another legitimate interpretation of this graph would be: “MLB games over the past 20 years last roughly three hours on average.”
Does MLB really believe that eleven minutes of game length is the difference between rising and falling popularity? That if the 3:03 average time of 2022 was reduced back to the 2:52 time of 2002, through tinkering with long-standing rules of the game, fans would be flocking back to ballparks and driving TV ratings through the roof?
The article also shows a graph of pickoff attempts vs. successful outs. Nearly all pickoff attempts are unsuccessful at getting the runner out (there were 275 successful pickoffs on 14,467 attempts in 2022, for a rate of 1.9 percent). The conclusion one might draw is that these attempts are a complete waste, making games take longer for no reason.
There are two problems with that narrative. First, as the graph in the article shows, the number of pickoff attempts peaked in 2011 at 20,671. That means pickoff attempts declined by about 30 percent from 2011 to 2022, yet games still take a few minutes longer, on average, in 2022. Second, the purpose of a pickoff attempt is not to get the runner out. The purpose is to keep the runner close to the base to make it more difficult for him to reach the next base safely. Judging whether a pickoff was a waste of time by whether the runner was tagged out misses the point of that part of the game.
As I have written before, the bigger problem with the new pitch-clock rule is not the time between pitches (though Americans should oppose clocks in baseball on principle). It is that it changes the rules surrounding pickoffs. Attempting a pickoff resets the pitch clock, so to prevent pitchers from buying more time through pickoff attempts, the rule limits pitchers to two unsuccessful attempts per plate appearance. They can make a third attempt, but if the runner isn’t out, it will be a balk.
So the game for base runners now will be to draw two pickoff attempts, then take a bigger lead, knowing that the pitcher is unlikely to throw over again. At the major-league level, pitchers are more responsible for preventing steals than catchers are (the best catchers only throw out stealing runners around half the time, and many are much worse than that). But now the pitch-clock rule will give base runners an advantage, under the misbegotten assumption that unsuccessful pickoffs are wasted efforts that only drag out the game.
MLB is chasing a potential fan base that doesn’t exist, with “fixes” that make little sense and change fundamental aspects of the game. If millions of new fans start tuning in once game length is reduced by eleven minutes and magic runners make extra-inning games shorter, I’ll reconsider my views.