Barron’s is predicting that Republicans hold both the House and the Senate. They use candidates’ fundraising totals to predict outcomes, noting that it usually works and that in years when it hasn’t, the economy has been worse than it is now. But how often does this method work in tight races? Their percentages are skewed by the vast number of races in which a not-seriously contested incumbent raises a lot of money.
The piece is a pick-me-up for Tom Reynolds, Rick Santorum, and Mike Sodrel (but not for Chris Chocola or John Hostetler). But I don’t think the analysis is very solid.