The Corner

Elections

The Last Time a Monmouth Poll Showed Trump down Four Points in Pennsylvania

As Alexandra notes, a new Monmouth poll shows Trump trailing Biden by 45 percent to 49 percent in Pennsylvania.

The last time a Monmouth poll showed Trump down four points in Pennsylvania? November 2016

It’s important, of course, to see if Trump’s post-convention bounce is sustained, and whether Biden’s overall level of support dips the way Clinton’s did before Election Day. 

In the final RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania in 2016, Clinton led Trump 46.8 to 44.7. She ended up losing 47.5 percent to 48.2 percent. Right now, Biden leads Trump 49.0 percent to 44.8 percent in the RCP average of polls in Pennsylvania.