A new poll of the Montana Senate race, conducted October 5–7 by Emerson, shows Republican incumbent Steve Daines leading his Democratic challenger Steve Bullock by 9 points:
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) October 8, 2020
Republicans have been worried about the Montana Senate race because the state has a robust recent history of ticket-splitting. Bullock, the sitting Democratic governor, won reelection in 2016 even as Trump carried Montana by 20 points. Montana’s Democratic senator Jon Tester won reelection in 2012 even as Mitt Romney carried the state by 14 points.
Daines’s improved standing could be a sign that the fight to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court may help Republicans in some red states.
Daines led Bullock by just one point — 45 percent to 44 percent — in the last non-partisan poll of the Montana Senate race, which was conducted September 14–16 (before the current Supreme Court vacancy arose) by the New York Times and Siena College.
Emerson’s last poll of the Montana race, conducted at the beginning of August, showed Daines leading Bullock 50 percent to 44 percent.