Yesterday I noted some analysis of the president’s budget from the center-left Tax Policy Center. Now we have some from the right-leaning Tax Foundation.
By these estimates, if enacted, the budget — which includes the Biden family and infrastructure plans — would hike spending by $4 trillion over ten years while raising $1.3 trillion in revenue. These numbers shift to $5 trillion and $3 trillion if you count tax credits as spending and toss in a promised $700 billion from better tax enforcement. (The tax credits include Biden’s big payments to parents regardless of whether they work, and the report treats such “spending through the tax code” as a revenue-reducer rather than spending per se.)
America has a population of roughly 330 million, so every trillion dollars represents about $3,000 per person.
The Tax Foundation also estimates the broader economic effects of the tax and spending changes: about 165,000 fewer jobs and 1 percent lower GDP in the long run, for example.
Unlike the previous report, this one doesn’t tell us what percentage of all individual filers would see tax hikes. In terms of broad income groups, though, the top 20 percent would pay more than they used to starting next year, and the top 60 percent would by 2031, thanks to the expiration of the bigger child tax credit in 2026.