This is very rough-and-ready reporting, so don’t take this as 100% nailed down, but should be pretty accurate. From Ohio GOP source: It’s as close to impossible for Kerry as it can get. Roughly 154,000 provisionals and a 137,000 margin, with probably something on the order of 10,000 overseas ballots, many of which are military and will break strongly for Bush. Doing the math, Kerry’s just not going to get there. The factoid that 90% of Ohio provisionals were valid in the past was based on Ohio state law, not on HAVA. HAVA will apply here. It’s standards will be stricter. The early indication from local elections officials is that 50-70% of the provisional ballots will be valid. The standards for counting were stipulated in that Sixth circuit decision recently: you have to be registered, and you have to have voted in the correct precinct. Again, there is no way Kerry can win this thing. Dragging it out–based probably on outlandish allegations–is only a way to play to the left and try to de-legitimize Bush’s second term by mucking it up as much as possible. But Republicans on the ground in Ohio are hopeful it ends quickly, perhaps today.
UPDATE: it appears now to be academic.