Amid debates about how much the reversal of Roe v. Wade will impact the midterms, today’s Associated Press story signals ominous news for Democrats:
A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.
How many of those voters — particularly the suburban women who delivered pivotal races for Democrats in 2018 and 2020 — will switch back to the Democratic Party in the wake of Dobbs? More than zero, probably. Others may stay home. But at least in the House of Representatives, it won’t be enough. A red wave is coming — that much is more or less baked into the cake. At this point, the only question is: How big?