In the final days I will be bothering my elections guru for his latest take knowing how prescient he has been in the past. We just spoke and his experience tells him: This not a nationwide sweep. To explain himself, he starts talking in detail about races up and down the ballot, e.g. he’s keeping an eye on an auditor’s race in PA. He’s that kind of entrails expert.
He sees a major distinction with 1994 “when Repubicans were winning most offices in 40 states, while Democrats were doing the same in 5 and the remaining 5 were tied or mixed.” This year, Republicans are dominating in 21 states, Democrats in 22 with 7 tied or mixed. For example, Republicans are in trouble in PA with governor and senate race but Republicans might not lose a majority of the congressional delegation and will hold the state senate. Though the Republicans might lose 6 or 7 Governorships (they currently hold 28) they’ll hang on to state senates in NY, PA, OH, MI, WI, MO, AZ, TX, FL, GA and KY. He notes that even if Repubicans lose 3 House seats in Indiana and lose the majority of the delegation, they will win the majority of the popular vote for Congress. His general bottom line is that Democratic wins will be “shallow.”
His specifics at the moment (given that he is moving races in and out of his categories every day): He has 13 GOP House seats as “goners” in ths order: TX-22 OPEN, AZ-8 OPEN, CO-7 OPEN, PA-10 Sherwood, PA-7 Welson, OH-18 OPEN, IN-8 Hostettler, IN-2 Chocola, NY-24 OPEN, IA-1 OPEN, OH-15 Pryce, NM-1 Wilson, and NC-11 Taylor. He once had 20 seats in this category buts credits Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman with “buy-backs” that rescued seats once over the cliff. (e.g. He thinks there is new life in NY- Reynolds, IN-Sodrel, and PA-Gerlach, MN-6). His “super-vulnerable” (i.e. on the verge of lost) House seats number 12 and they include FL-3, CT-4, FL-16, IN-9, PA-6, CT- Johnson, KY Northrup and IL-6. He figures you have to expect Republicans to lose half of these – so they are down at least 19. Given that he has 42 total seats in play that result would be a victory of sorts. (I said “of sorts”).
He sees Democrats winning Senate seats in Ohio, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania and is “sure we will win” in Virginia, Missouri and Montana. He thinks Corker holds TN and Menendez holds NJ. The math is really hard in Maryland, but there is hope for Republicans