Having listened to all of the oral arguments–and having brought the full resources of my Harvard J.D. and my years of service as a federal appellate clerk and constitutional scholar* to bear–here’s my official prediction:
–The Court rules on the merits, putting aside the Anti-Injunction Act 8-1 or 9-0.
–A 5-4 decision to strike down the mandate, with Justice Kennedy writing for the majority.
–A split decision on severability, the effect of which is the striking down of community rating and guaranteed issue alongside the mandate, but not the rest of the law. Chief Justice Roberts asks one of the liberal justices to write the operative opinion as a way of extending an olive branch.
–The Medicaid provisions are upheld 5-4, with Roberts writing for the majority.
On the whole, this is hardly the safest or most obvious prediction, but where’s the fun in that? Wonder what other folks think. Also, I’ve done the requisite wood-knocking for the bolded bit, so as not to jinx it.
*Note: I do not actually hold these or any other relevant qualifications.