I’ve maintained all year long that Bush wins, based on the simple calculation that the economy is more or less a wash, that he wins the national security argument, and that he is the better, more likable candidate. I think all that still holds, although maybe the economy played slightly more negatively than I thought and Kerry has probably been a better candidate than I expected. Bush still wins, although I think it will be very close (I’m naturally a pessimist–so I would; I’m also looking at the latest polls). I believe the GOP base is very ginned up, and so Republican turn-out will keep pace tomorrow. I have no original insights into the state of play in any of the states, but I’m a 270’s guy. 270, 271, 276 are the numbers I’m thinking. Push to shove, I’d say 270, with a Bush comeback in New Hampshire or–funner still–a steal of Hawaii saving the free world for another four years.