The Corner

My Prediction

All year long, I’ve hemmed and hawed over Bush vs. Kerry, and I’ve generally been less confident than most conservatives about Bush’s chances. Maybe I’m a bit of a pessimist–four years ago, I was telling everybody to get ready for President Gore.

Well, this time I’m going whole hog for Bush. In January, Democratic voters came to their senses when they ditched Howard Dean for Kerry, a more grown-up candidate. I’m guessing that America will do something similar tomorrow by recognizing it’s at war and continuing the tradition of not dumping its commander-in-chief when the fight is on.

Bush will carry Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Kerry will carry (no pun intended) Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

If these results hold–no vote-splitting in Maine, no faithless electors, etc.–then Bush wins 300 to 238.

John J. Miller, the national correspondent for National Review and host of its Great Books podcast, is the director of the Dow Journalism Program at Hillsdale College. He is the author of A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America.