Jay Cost is a brilliant numbers guy. On Election Day 2004, it was his analyses that kept me relaxed and confident of a GOP win despite the exit polls. (Kathryn and others may recall our exchanges here in the Corner as it got down to the wire.)
What is Jay saying now?
On a good night, I see the Democrats picking up 23 to 27. On a bad night, I see them picking up only 11 to 15. On an average night, well…19 is not terribly far from the estimate I have had in my mind for a while.