She’s not at 218 right now, and she’s going to have to work for it, but the odds are strongly in her favor. There’s no alternative candidate at the moment. Democrats just won, which makes the timing of jettisoning her odd. It’s going to be tough for Democrats to depose a woman in the current environment. She will be much more determined than her foes, who are moderate Democrats prone to folding. Finally, while there was an activist and media ecosystem that encouraged the rebels against John Boehner, the opposite is true on the left — the rebels against Pelosi will get hammered by their own side as sexist ingrates. Advantage: Pelosi.