The reason the current Joe Biden comeback seemed so improbable is that the voters in the first two states voting in the Democratic primary turned against him so strongly: fourth in the Iowa caucus and fifth in the New Hampshire primary are terrible finishes for a candidate who led the national polls for most of the previous year. Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats took a long look at Biden and were not reassured. He seemed older, unfocused, and just not a solid bet in a general election against Donald Trump.
At this moment, everything’s coming up roses for Biden. He just got the big win he needed in South Carolina, Pete Buttigieg is out, Amy Klobuchar is getting out and endorsing him, the endorsements from hesitant Democratic officeholders are coming in by the bushel, and tomorrow could put him close to Sanders in the delegate race. By Wednesday, Democrats may come to something of a consensus that Bloomberg is wasting his money and time.
But it’s probably more accurate to say that some of the Biden comeback is driven by the failures of the other alternatives to Sanders. Under the harsh lights of the debate stage, Bloomberg revealed himself to be a cold fish with NDA issues. Buttigieg and Klobuchar demonstrated no ability to win votes among Latinos or African-Americans and just had no place to go on Super Tuesday.
Biden was better than usual in the Nevada and South Carolina debates, but it’s not like he blew the doors off the place. No, the biggest difference between three weeks ago and now is that fewer Democrats think that either Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar is going to save them from the prospect of a Sanders nomination.
Maybe that’s all Biden needs. The next Democratic presidential debate isn’t until March 15. (Beware the Ides of March!) 15 states vote tomorrow. Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington vote March 10, determining another 352 delegates. This year’s cycle is so front-loaded, almost half the states will vote before the next debate. For the next few weeks, Biden just has to avoid any terrible gaffes — not his run-of-the-mill gaffes, not even, “Guess what, if you elect me you’re not gonna — your taxes are gonna be raised, not cut.”
But hey, what are the odds Joe Biden says something really awkward and regrettable and self-destructive in the next few weeks?