The Corner


New Emerson Poll Puts Biden Barely Ahead Nationally, 49 percent to 47 percent

Democrats may look at this new nationwide poll from Emerson and either break out in hives, or insist it’s only one poll and must be a bad sample, or insist it’s a temporary post-convention bump that will quickly fade.

Since the Emerson College July national poll, President Donald Trump has tightened the presidential race to a two-point margin, and is now trailing former Vice President Joe Biden 49% to 47%. In July, former V.P. Joe Biden held a four-point lead over President Trump –– 50% to 46%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains “the Republican convention gave Trump his most positive week of news coverage which likely attributes to his bounce in this month’s poll and increasing job approval.”

Voters planning to vote early in person are breaking for Trump 50% to 49% while those who plan to vote in person on election break for the President 57% to 37%. Voters who said they plan to vote by mail break for Biden 67% to 28%.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gives Emerson an “A-” grade, so the “this group of pollsters don’t know what they’re doing” probably is not going to fly.


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