Republican governor Rick Scott trails his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by three percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from St. Leo University Polling Institute. Crist’s lead falls within the margin of error, which is consistent with a series of recent polls that show the two candidates tied, and Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie received the support of eight percent of those surveyed.
“It appears as though Charlie Crist’s attacks against Rick Scott are working, as the race has swung away from the incumbent in the last few months,” Frank Orlando, a political science professor at St. Leo University, said. ”Pre-election polls tend to overstate support for third party candidates. When it comes time to cast their ballots, voters seem to settle on one of the two main parties for fear of ‘wasting’ their vote.”
Wyllie appears to be pulling more support from Scott then Crist, and Scott has an edge among undecided voters in the poll, which suggests Scott may have the most to gain from voters deciding not to “waste” their ballot on a third-party candidate.
Earlier this week, Scott announced he would be spending some of his own money on his campaign in response to environmentalist billionaire Tom Steyer’s bankrolling attack ads on behalf of Crist. Steyer has reportedly spent $12 million on the Florida gubernatorial race, nearly half of which was spent on ads attacking Scott, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Steyer has already given more than $55 million to his super PAC, NextGen Climate Action Committee, making him the largest super-PAC donor of 2014.