This morning, the Guttmacher Institute released updated abortion estimates for 2023. The new figures show that 1,026,690 abortions were performed in 2023, an increase of 10 percent since the year 2020. This is consistent with a trend in increasing abortion rates that started around 2017. Another key finding was the increase in chemical abortions. Overall, 63 percent of all abortions performed in 2023 were chemical abortions — an increase of ten percentage points from 2020. Several media outlets have reported on this new data, including CNN, the Wall Street Journal, the Hill, and National Public Radio
I would encourage pro-lifers to consider these new data with some degree of skepticism. The data comes from the Guttmacher Institute’s Monthly Abortion Provision Survey. This is different from Guttmacher’s Abortion Provider Census, which is conducted every three years. By Guttmacher’s own admission, the calculations for the Monthly Abortion Provision Survey come from “a slimmer portfolio of data” and are designed to produce faster calculations on the incidence of abortion. Given that, the 2023 abortion estimates may not be as reliable as Guttmacher’s previous annual abortion estimates.
Some media outlets and commentators will doubtless use spin these new data to argue that newly enacted pro-life laws are ineffective. However, taken at face value, the data show that expanding access to chemical abortions increases the incidence of abortion. In 2016, the FDA extended the gestational age limit for chemical abortions from seven to ten weeks. At this time, the FDA also reduced the number of times women seeking chemical abortions had to visit a physician’s office. Also, in 2022, the Biden administration continued the Covid-era policy of allowing women to obtain chemical-abortion pills without an in-person medical examination.
Even though these new data indicate that the incidence of abortion has increased since the Dobbs decision, there is still very strong statistical evidence that newly enacted pro-life laws are preventing abortions and savings lives. Three separate analyses of Texas birth data have found that the Texas Heartbeat Act saved over 1,000 lives a month. Also, a study published by the Institute for Labor Economics saw increased birth rates in many states that enforced strong pro-life laws shortly after the Dobbs decision. Enacting strong legal protections for preborn children is still a worthwhile policy goal for pro-lifers.