It’s difficult to recall another incumbent president approaching this level of unpopularity in his own party. Meanwhile, DeSantis stands like a colossus.
After 2022, you might be under the impression that New Hampshire’s voters are complacent and satisfied with the status quo. On the Republican side, the uber-competent moderate Chris Sununu was reelected governor by 15 points, and the party kept control of both houses of the state legislature, increasing its share of the popular vote by a couple of points. On the Democratic side, Maggie Hassan was reelected to the Senate by nine points after winning in 2016 by just 1,014 votes, and Democrats easily held on to both of the state’s congressional seats, with Chris Pappas reelected by nine points and Anne Kuster by eleven points.
Early presidential polling, however, suggests a restive undercurrent that could blossom into another of the rebellions that have often characterized the New Hampshire primary and the state’s stereotypically flinty independence. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden has never been well-liked there. It was in New Hampshire in 1987 that Biden suffered the most famous fib-filled public meltdown of his 1988 presidential campaign:
Biden withdrew from the 1988 and 2008 races before New Hampshire voted; he received 638 votes (0.22 percent) in 2008. In 2020, following a poor showing in Iowa, it was New Hampshire that left Biden apparently on the ropes, as he finished fifth with just 8.4 percent of the votes, less than a third of the support for Bernie Sanders and double digits behind both Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.
Ahead of his anticipated reelection bid in 2024 at age 81, even without (so far) a primary opponent, Biden is scrambling to get Iowa and New Hampshire demoted from their positions at the head of the calendar, branding them as too white to be representative of the national Democratic electorate. It is not hard to see why. The latest University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll, released yesterday, shows that if offered other choices, only 18 percent of Democratic primary voters would choose the sitting president; 79 percent would pick another candidate, and 4 percent aren’t sure. The poll shows Biden tied with Elizabeth Warren and five points behind Buttigieg. When asked their second choice, only 3 percent named Biden. Biden’s support has inched up just slightly from 16 percent in the last Granite State Poll, taken in July. If you’re wondering about the pollster’s track record, UNH’s final polls in 2022 had Hassan winning by two and Sununu winning by twelve, so understating both margins of victory. It’s a solid pollster, but by no means the last word on anything.
By a whopping margin of 66 percent to 27 percent, New Hampshire Democrats say they don’t want Biden to run again. Biden is viewed favorably by just 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state. Biden trails Buttigieg 40 percent to 34 percent among self-identified liberals, but they make up only 19 percent of the sample; 44 percent define themselves as moderates, and 37 percent as progressives or socialists. Biden trails Buttigieg 35 percent to 18 percent among moderates, while drawing 19 percent of socialists (among whom Bernie still draws 48 percent and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez draws 22 percent) and just 11 percent of progressives, who are divided.
It is difficult to recall another incumbent president even approaching this level of unpopularity in his own party. New Hampshire has fired its share of warning shots in presidential primaries before, but the incumbent typically just gets bloodied, not actually beaten. In 1968, Lyndon Johnson beat Eugene McCarthy 49 percent to 42 percent. In 1976, Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan 50 percent to 48 percent. Four years later, Jimmy Carter beat Ted Kennedy 47 percent to 37 percent. And in 1992, George H. W. Bush beat Pat Buchanan 53 percent to 38 percent. All of those were seen as major setbacks for the incumbent; LBJ’s Pyrrhic victory was so humiliating that he dropped out of the race, Ford and Carter both went on to lose later states, and Carter and Bush both attracted third-party candidacies in the general election. All four lost in November; Carter, who did the worst of the four with 47 percent in the primary, lost 44 states.
Unlike Biden, Donald Trump has good reasons to love New Hampshire. In a field of many candidates, he won the 2016 primary by 19 points over the second-place finisher, John Kasich. The state’s Republican electorate tends to be allergic to the sorts of religious and southern conservatives who do well in Iowa and South Carolina, which made it hostile territory for both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. But in the Granite State Poll of likely Republican primary voters, released today, Trump is losing, and badly. He trails Ron DeSantis by double digits, 42 percent to 30 percent. Nikki Haley runs third, but with just 8 percent. Reflecting the tendencies of the New Hampshire electorate, 12 percent of the vote is divided among Sununu, Liz Cheney, and Larry Hogan, while Mike Pence, Cruz, and Rubio each draw just 1 percent; Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, and Glenn Youngkin each poll at 0 percent. Kristi Noem draws 2 percent.
DeSantis stands like a colossus in this poll: 65 percent want him to run, while only 26 percent do not. This is a major setback for Trump’s theme that DeSantis is being disloyal if he runs and should wait his turn until Trump is 82. No other Republican tested is viewed favorably by more than 47 percent; DeSantis is viewed favorably by an eye-popping 73 percent. Self-described moderates outnumber conservatives by 48 percent to 44 percent in this poll, with the rest being libertarians; Trump beats DeSantis 44 percent to 20 percent among moderates but gets crushed by DeSantis, 55 percent to 28 percent, among conservatives and 72 percent to 4 percent among self-identified libertarians.
Yes, you read that right: For all of the media panic about how DeSantis is a supposed authoritarian and Florida’s Viktor Orbán, self-identified libertarians are nearly his strongest demographic in this poll.
Trump may not be worried about the trend of national polls showing that he loses to DeSantis in a one-on-one matchup, because he still leads in multicandidate fields, which is how he won in 2016. But this is now the second UNH poll in a row to show him trailing DeSantis in a multicandidate field. The prior poll, taken in June, had the Florida governor up by just two points. DeSantis is also the second choice of 30 percent of voters, while Trump is the second choice of only 14 percent, suggesting that DeSantis has more potential room to grow. Sununu, who is widely popular in his home state, is the second choice of 19 percent. That suggests that he could make a dent in this primary — but if he were actually running to win the nomination, it would be essential for Sununu to win his home state going away, and there is no sign of a market for that. Fifty-two percent do not want Sununu to run. A majority, 50 to 46, do not want Trump to run again, although this is not as lopsided as the sentiment against Biden.
It is hazardous to make too many predictions this early, but if Trump does not win the New Hampshire primary, he won’t be the nominee, period. He lost Iowa in 2016, and even in that primary season when everything broke the way he needed it, he was never as popular in Sun Belt states as he was in the more secular Northeast. If he were actually to lose by twelve in his best early state in 2016, the expectations of a repeat of the 2016 magic would be broken for good.