New Poll: Oregon Governor’s Race a Dead Heat

National Review’s editorial this morning, “Oregon’s Republican Hope,” outlined the GOP’s unusually viable shot in the Oregon governor’s race this November:

Despite the state’s decisive lean left, Kate Brown, the term-limited outgoing Democratic governor, has repeatedly been rated as the least popular governor in the country. Tina Kotek, the Democratic nominee in the governor’s race — and a close ally of Brown’s during her tenure as the speaker of the Oregon House — is facing tough headwinds, above and beyond the overall national conditions. An unusually viable and well-funded Democrat-turned-independent, Betsy Johnson, is polling in the low 20s in her candidacy for governor and could peel off crucial Democratic votes. And Christine Drazan, the Republican hopeful who previously served as minority leader in the Oregon House, is as serious and competent a candidate as Oregon Republicans — who have often opted to nominate deeply flawed long shots in the past — could hope for.

Considering all this, political analysts have repeatedly tightened their ratings for the Oregon governor’s contest. In August, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed its assessment of the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” In July, the Cook Political Report moved its rating from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat”; in September, the group downgraded again, from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” The available polling shows Drazan and Kotek virtually tied in the low 30s, with Johnson trailing ten points or so behind.

With that being said, as I wrote this weekend, “There’s been very little public polling available on the race — the most recent survey on FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator is from mid August.” But right on cue, just hours after NR’s editorial this morning, the Oregonian released a new poll showing that the race is still effectively tied:

“That puts Drazan, the former House Republican leader, and Kotek, the former House Speaker, in a statistical tie for first place given the poll’s margin of error, plus or minus 4%,” the Oregonian reports. “About 15% of voters remain undecided. . . . The poll of 600 likely Oregon voters was conducted on Friday and Saturday of last week.”