Within the past week separate polls from Idaho and Missouri have shown pro-life victories are within reach.
Pro-lifers are devoting a great deal of attention to the 2026 midterm elections. Multiple polls indicate that Democrats have a good chance to win majorities in both the U.S. House and U.S Senate. Furthermore, abortion opponents are aware that Democratic control of Congress might make it difficult to enact the Hyde amendment and achieve other pro-life policy goals.
However, perhaps even more importantly, in four states there are ballot questions that have important implications for abortion policy. In Nevada, Virginia, and Idaho there are ballot propositions that would place legal abortion in the state constitution. Also, in Missouri there is a ballot question that would remove legal abortion from the state constitution and prevent gender conversion treatments for minors. There is little in the way of recent polling from either Nevada or Virginia. However, within the past week separate polls from Idaho and Missouri have shown pro-life victories are within reach.
Last week, VoteNexus released the results of a state poll of 700 likely Idaho voters. It showed that Question 1, which would place abortion in Idaho’s state constitution, has the support of only 39 percent of voters, with 54 percent opposed. Considering that ballot propositions tend to lose support as election day draws near, the results of this poll are excellent news for Idaho pro-lifers. Now, one should never read too much into the results of a single poll. However, the other polling results from this VoteNexus poll provide solid evidence this poll is not an outlier.
Regarding Missouri, an October Remington Poll asked 684 likely voters how they planned to vote on Question 3, which would remove abortion from the state constitution and prevent gender conversion treatments for minors. It found that Missourians were closely divided — with 43 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed. These results are not as promising for pro-lifers since ballot questions usually lose support as Election Day approaches. In 2024, however, multiple Missouri polls significantly underestimated pro-life performance on another abortion ballot question. If that is the case with this Remington Poll, a win is well within reach for Show-Me State pro-lifers.
It is no secret that pro-lifers have struggled in direct democracy elections since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. However, during the 2024 elections, pro-lifers did notch important wins in statewide ballot questions in Nebraska and South Dakota. Victories in Missouri and Idaho would provide additional evidence that pro-lifers can win direct democracy elections in conservative parts of the country.