Watching the floor debate in the Senate today, Senator McCain looks like a no on New START, and Sen. Corker — who voted the treaty out of committee — appears increasingly sore over Reid’s decision to bring votes on DREAM and DADT alongside New START. The scuttlebutt from Hill staffers is that Senator Graham might be leaning no as well. Isakson, who also voted with the Democrats to pass START out of committe, will prove key. If all four are going to oppose New START, it probably can’t pass.

UPDATE: Senator Graham, in remarks just now on the Senate floor, said New START’s preamble, which many believe contains an implicit limitation on U.S. missile defense,  should be taken out of treaty, or else it “would be better not to do the treaty.” “You should not sign the treaty” without losing the preamble, Graham said.