An email in response to my post about Niall Ferguson yesterday: “Ferguson also made an analogy to the miserable performance of the Tories as a result of Major’s feeble 1992 government. But this ignores the fact that Major was also the candidate in 1997, which can’t be the case in the US, and that major in 97 was trying for the fifth straight Tory win in a row. (Also, he made some spectacularly bad choices during his term.) Bush may or may not do well in a second term, but he will be a lame duck from election day onward, and there will be four years of excitement over who will get the GOP nod in 08. And Cheney will not be the crown prince either, so it’s an open race. The GOP candidiate will be a fresh face and if Bush screws up, can put space between him and W.
“Also, remember the Tories won their four previous victories with around 42, 43 % of the vote — in 97 the left finally was able to achieve tactical voting.”