Nikki Haley Sure Sounds Like She’s Running for President

Nikki Haley has been making presidential-campaign-sounding noises for months. Last June, while speaking at a fundraiser in Iowa — a casual trip to the state that just so happens to host the first primary caucuses — the former South Carolina governor said she’d run in 2024 “if there’s a place for me.” Earlier this week, she blasted Mike Pompeo, another speculative 2024 contender, for peddling “lies and gossip” in his upcoming memoir. And yesterday, in an interview with Sean Hannity, Haley came about as close as possible to saying she intended to run without actually saying so officially: “As fun as it would be to announce right now, yes . . . we are leaning in,” she responded to Hannity’s query about a run. “It is time for a new generation. . . . It is time that we get a Republican in there that can lead and that can win a general election.”

If she announces soon, Haley would be the second Republican presidential hopeful to officially throw her hat in the ring, following her former boss. Ron DeSantis, of course, is the other heavyweight who is widely expected to take the plunge, but he may well hold his fire until later — letting other primary contenders duke it out while securing a few more legislative wins in Florida is probably to his benefit. Other Republicans who have been sounding presidential notes include Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, and former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.

I’m on the record for being skeptical of the ballooning field of potential also-rans. To be sure, this is self-government we’re talking about, and Republican voters shouldn’t be denied the opportunity to choose from a variety of visions of conservatism — and of the GOP — in 2024. At the same time, while trying to draw conclusions from polling this early is a sketchy proposition. The current mood in the GOP primary electorate suggests that this really is a two-man contest between Trump and DeSantis. Leave aside polling: Just in terms of common sense, does anyone who’s been paying attention to the GOP over the course of the past few years really think Larry Hogan, Mike Pompeo, or John Bolton — let alone Chris Christie, Liz Cheney, and the variety of other Republicans who have also publicly mused about a run — are going to crack double digits in this primary?

Nikki Haley and Mike Pence, at least, could plausibly carve out viable lanes to run in, although I still think it’s a long shot. Even in her home state of South Carolina, just 37 percent of Republican voters say Haley should run for president in 2024, compared to 45 percent who say Trump should. But while she’s not my preferred candidate, Haley “has remained popular in Republican circles, even after leaving office,” Newsweek reported. She’s a strong fundraiser, a compelling public speaker, and has the added political benefit of being an Indian-American daughter of immigrants who could plausibly sell Republican voters on her ability to win over new demographics. (A message she’s clearly already leaning into, as seen in her recent call for a Republican who “can win a general election.”)

Pence, alternatively — a self-styled champion of the religious Right — could (and might) run on the strategy of peeling off the Evangelical voters who were so crucial to Trump’s coalition in the past. The former vice president appears to be mulling a run along those lines, recently launching a tour of megachurches while promoting his new, appropriately titled book So Help Me God. But Pence, too, is facing an uphill political battle. As the New York Times‘ Blake Hounshell reported in December:

Former Vice President Mike Pence’s book tour does not seem to be lifting his standing in the party. A year ago, 65 percent of Republicans had a favorable impression of him. Now, that number stands at 51 percent. Pence’s unfavorable rating has nearly doubled — to 40 percent from 21 percent — over the same period.

(Note: I’m including Republican-leaning independents with Republicans in these numbers. Marquette breaks them out multiple ways, unlike the other pollsters listed here.)

So, while a couple other candidates could, if you squint, have an outside shot, the real race still seems to be Trump vs. DeSantis. That’s a real conflict of visions, and my personal opinion is that voters would be better served without a 2016-style cacophony of voices drowning out the two viable candidates. Then again, when it comes to Republican presidential primaries, two dollars and my personal opinion gets you a small cup of coffee.

Editor’s note: This post has been corrected to reflect the fact that John Bolton has not announced a presidential run, as detailed here.