No, Joe Manchin Is Not Why Dems Are Losing Voters

Now the Left is claiming that the end of Biden’s expanded child tax credit from the American Rescue Plan Act is the reason for plummeting poll numbers.

In a Morning Consult post by Eli Yokley, the Morning Consult and Politico published polls asserting that families that received expanded child tax credits are shifting their electoral favor to Republicans now that the “benefit has dried up”:

Among parents or guardians with at least one child under 18 in the household who received the expanded child tax credit payments, 46% said they are most likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate this year while 43% said they’re inclined to back the Democratic candidate.

Among progressive, the implication is that CTC recipients don’t know any better and have misplaced their frustrations with the end of the expanded CTC by punishing Democrats and rewarding Republicans:

More progressives piled on. In a dig at Manchin, Mike Casca, deputy chief of staff and director of communications for Bernie Sanders, tweeted that “conservative democrats’” failure to pass BBB will “pay dividends for the party.” Chris Hayes blamed Joe Manchin for “basically single-handedly” thwarting Dem’s electoral edge by voting down BBB:

To merely call this statistically simplistic is kind. 

Rule No. 1: Correlation does not equal causation. To wholly attribute Democrats’ falling poll numbers to the end of the expanded CTC misses a variety of other — far more substantive and widespread — economic factors. 

Under the American Rescue Plan, the CTC rose at least $1,000 per child for qualifying families:

The American Rescue Plan increased the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child for children over the age of six and from $2,000 to $3,600 for children under the age of six, and raised the age limit from 16 to 17. All working families will get the full credit if they make up to $150,000 for a couple or $112,500 for a family with a single parent (also called Head of Household).

That covers a huge swath of the population — the median family income in FY 2021 was far under the $150,000 and $112,500 benchmarks, coming in at $79,900. Most qualifying families fall into the middle class — a slim majority of the U.S. population — earning $42,000 and $126,000, according to 2017 Pew calculations.

So, during the pandemic, tens of millions of Americans received expanded CTC payments. 

And these millions of Americans have been more directly impacted by broader economic trends, like rising prices. The Morning Consult post notes that “many voters who received the [CTC] payments,” which is “a group that leans Democratic,” are experiencing “economic strain.” Yes, that’s because everyone is experiencing economic strain. 

Prices for common household necessities — such as energy and food — have risen well over 5 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The burden of rising prices and inflation disproportionately affects lower income families. After housing prices, the lowest-earning 20 percent of Americans spend the most on groceries and utilities like fuel. 

So it’s more likely that Americans are changing their electoral preferences because their daily lives are pricier: Grocery budgets are tighter, it’s more expensive to eat out, and the price at the pump is almost unbearable.

Not because BBB failed and certainly not because Joe Manchin exists.