An email pitch informs me that in a new survey, when voters were asked whom Democrats should nominate if Joe Biden was not the nominee, the second-most-popular option was “Michelle Obama,” mentioned by 19 percent of Democratic voters and 13 percent of voters as a whole. Note that even in this poll, 21 percent of Democratic voters and 13 percent of all voters mentioned Kamala Harris.
This poll is basically a name-recognition survey; “don’t know” came in third among Democrats with 13 percent, and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both were the preference of 8 percent each. Clearly, the best way to dispel the issue that Biden is too old is to nominate a Vermont senator who will be 83 on Election Day.
I regret to inform the pollsters, and everyone excited about the prospect of Michelle Obama being the Democratic nominee, that this scenario is extremely unlikely to occur.
First, if, God forbid, Joe Biden has a heart attack tomorrow and cannot perform his duties, Kamala Harris becomes president. Yes, a Biden delegate is pledged only to Biden and is not obligated to support Harris if Biden suddenly was no longer a candidate. But if Harris becomes president before the Democratic convention, it is very, very hard to envision Democrats choosing to not renominate the current sitting president, in order to nominate a former first lady who has steadfastly denied any interest in running for president. I suppose the circumstances change if, for some reason, acting president Kamala Harris didn’t want to run for a full term herself, but that is even harder to envision.
Second, the only way Biden will not run for a second term is if he is physically incapacitated. The president — and First Lady Jill Biden — have heard every conceivable and compelling argument that he should not run for a second term. The Bidens have rejected them all. There is no on-camera memory lapse, bobbled interview, or other bad moment that will convince them it’s worth giving up on another four years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.