The notion that the U.S. or NATO can collectively force some sort of cease-fire and end the Russian invasion of Ukraine was always unlikely, and that scenario is not getting less far-fetched as the war drags on. Neither Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky are ready to talk about an end to the war yet, and neither side is likely to be willing to even consider that prospect for quite some time.
CIA director William Burns told a House Intelligence Committee hearing this week, “I believe [Putin is] convinced that he can make time work for him, that he can grind down the Ukrainians through this war of attrition, that he can wear down Western supporters of Ukraine. And he’s convinced also and has been for some time that Ukraine matters more to him than to us.”
Putin may — emphasis on may — be wrong in that assessment, but as long as he feels time is on his side, he’s not going to agree to any significant cease-fire.
Finnish president Sauli Niinisto, once nicknamed “the Putin whisperer,” told Bloomberg this week that he hadn’t spoken to Putin since May and, at least at this point, doesn’t see any point in talking to Putin.
“I have said that I’m totally prepared to speak with him if there is some benefit from that, but at the moment we haven’t found out anything such,” told Bloomberg News.
Even the U.S. Institute for Peace — whose desired goal is right there in the name — concluded, “Tragically but realistically, Russia, like most historic imperial powers, will need to be defeated militarily before it abandons war as a means to dominate its neighbors. Any negotiated peace before such a defeat will simply let Russia rebuild its forces and renew its assault.”
The war isn’t likely to end anytime soon, certainly not until the spring offensives are completed, and probably not this year at all. Talk of how the U.S. can somehow bring Putin and Zelensky to the bargaining table if we just try hard enough is an irrelevant distraction from the reality of the situation.