Phil Klein reminds us that when Obamacare was enacted, the Congressional Budget Office projected that enrollment in the exchanges would be 21 million in 2016.
That means that the number of enrollees will have to double next year to meet CBO projections of 21 million.
Regardless of what the Supreme Court decides about the legality of federal exchange subsidies later this month, reaching 21 million will be a challenge. Especially because in the first two years, Obamacare may have already signed up the low-hanging fruit — those who had the greatest need for health insurance.
The number of enrollees isn’t of arbitrary importance, either. Insurers require a broad enough pool of enrollees to manage their risk and keep premiums stable.