Notes on Hungary

I’ll have something more to say later this week on the reelection of Hungary’s Fidesz government, led by Viktor Orbán. But just some observations.

National conservatism will produce national results. Until Russia’s war on Ukraine displaced all other issues of salience, Poland’s Law and Justice government was routinely lumped with Hungary’s as among the “backsliding democracies.” Namely, because they were passing socially conservative legislation and reforms that blunted the power of logrolling progressive institutions.

But the Polish public and the Hungarian public actually feel differently about the war. Poland is far more confrontational about Russia and their position is somewhat closer to that of the United Kingdom. In very general terms, the Polish public’s view is that Russian aggression must be confronted. The Hungarian public’s view is that Hungary cannot embroil itself in conflicts in which it will not be the final arbiter. A cursory familiarity with the last century of their respective histories suffices to explain this difference.

Hungary did not block the EU’s sanctions on Russia — but, like Germany, it will not cut off the gas and nuclear energy it buys from Russia. Although they came close to patching up last year, Hungary and Ukraine have had recent conflicts over national-identity issues. Hungary extended some citizen-like privileges to the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukraine. And Ukraine temporarily banned the use of Hungarian in school instruction before reversing itself.

Hungary attracts outsized international attention — left and right — as a proxy over domestic social wars. In this election, Orbán and his leading opponent both advertised their social conservatism. The results of a series of LGBT ballot referendum are pretty startling.

That kind of result, showing that even opposition voters are overwhelmingly socially conservative, should warn off progressives that Hungary isn’t going to transform into Belgium overnight, at least not democratically.

The leader of the six-party amalgamated opposition bloc, Péter Márki-Zay, had the support of international liberals but spent much of the campaign advertising that he was a social conservative, and never seemed to find an issue that divided the Fidesz coalition. On social issues, he presented “an echo not a choice.” And on other issues, the party — which united former Jobbik voters with socialists — had little hope of presenting a coherent alternative on governance.

As far as I can tell, none of the international observers have alleged electoral fraud — only “unfairness” in gerrymandering and media coverage. More on that in the future.