Reports suggest that the U.S. may open new nuclear talks with Iran, but it’s unclear what remains to negotiate — or why.
Axios: “White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul to discuss a possible nuclear deal, according to two sources with knowledge. A third source familiar with the planning said a meeting on Friday was ‘the best case scenario’ but cautioned that nothing is final until it happens.”
Just a quick reminder of the timeline:
January 8: President Donald Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt that, regarding the Iranian regime, “They’re doing very poorly and I have let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots. They have lots of riots. If they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard.”
January 13: President Trump posted on Truth Social:
Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
January 15: President Trump surprises everyone by declaring, “We have been notified, and pretty strongly, but we’ll find out what that all means. But we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped. It’s stopping and there’s no plan for executions or execution or executions. . . . We’ve been told on good authority, and I hope it’s true. Who knows? Who knows? Crazy world.”
Throughout January: The Iranian regime continues to kill protesters on a massive scale. Time magazine, citing two senior officials of the country’s Ministry of Health, reported that “as many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone.” Iran International reported that the regime’s internal documents indicated that “more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown on nationwide protests, making it the deadliest two-day protest massacre in history.”
January 28: President Trump posted on Truth Social:
A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal — NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS — one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Now, perhaps all the reports of forthcoming U.S. negotiations with Iran over a nuclear program are a ruse, meant to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security as some sort of U.S. “help” — airstrikes, cyber-warfare, covert operations — is prepared.
But if they aren’t, one wonders just what there is to negotiate about, as the Iranian nuclear program has been set back considerably. (“Completely and totally obliterated” as the president insisted in June 2025.)
Recall that the Iranian regime has broken almost every treaty it has ever signed.
We have an erratic president who veers back and forth between promises of “help” and threats of force, and then talks up how much he wants to work out a deal. Yes, in theory, there is value in cultivating a sense of strategic ambiguity and leaving hostile regimes confused about what the U.S. is going to do next. But at this point, it certainly seems like Trump declared “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” during intense protests and then failed to deliver any significant help in a timely manner.