Nate Silver suggested on Monday that the Democratic party’s prospects are looking better by the day. Why? Perhaps, he proposes, it’s the money:
Money could be a more important factor. Consider the states with the largest polling movement: In North Carolina, Hagan had $8.7 million in cash on hand as of June 30 as compared with just $1.5 million for her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis. In Colorado, Udall had $5.7 million as compared with $3.4 million for Republican Cory Gardner.
These totals do not account for outside spending. But in stark contrast to 2010, liberal and Democratic “super PACs” have spent slightly more money so far than conservative and Republican ones, according to the the Center for Responsive Politics. (One caveat for Democrats is that when money is spent on advertising, it can sometimes have short-lived effects.)
Whatever the reason, the GOP’s path to a Senate majority is less robust than before.
I’m generally skeptical about the effect that cash has on elections. Still, whether it works or not, Republican candidates in key states are about to receive a boost. Per Politico:
The National Rifle Association has reserved $11.4 million for its initial fall advertising campaign and will begin airing its first TV commercials Wednesday in three Senate races crucial to determining which party controls the chamber next year.
The gun rights group, which outlined its fall priorities exclusively for POLITICO Campaign Pro, said it plans to spend much more than the initial outlay during the final weeks before the midterm elections.
The first ads will begin airing in the Arkansas, Colorado and North Carolina Senate races. They will be followed in the next few days with a mix of TV, radio and digital ads to help out the GOP Senate candidates in Georgia, Kentucky, Iowa and Louisiana.
The NRA also plans to invest heavily in helping the reelection of Florida Gov. Rick Scott and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Both Republicans are locked in tight races.
The full story here.