The Corner

Obama vs. Clinton

I got this email on Friday and forgot to post it:

I think that Obama has a greater variance in general election vote potential than Hillary which is what makes him more frightening.  Obama can appeal to the independent voter in a way Hillary can’t, but also lacks the experience in office which might turn a number of middle of the road voters off, if he handles things clumsily. I see Obama’s range as running from 40% to 55% with about a 40% chance of winning overall.  Hillary from about 45% to 51% with about a 50% of winning.  With Hillary it will really be a base election.  Obama could mobilize a lot of new people.  Hillary can not be a transformative politician, in the sense of shifting the political balance in the US, Obama could be and would have a far greater chance at being re-elected in 2012 than Hillary.Hillary is the bigger electoral threat, but Obama is the bigger political one.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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