There’s been plenty of chatter about early voters. But one key component about early voters isn’t how many there are, but how many are voting who wouldn’t vote if the only day they could was Election Day. The Obama campagin has talked a lot about attracting “sporadic voters,” but according to the RNC’s numbers, more of the Democratic voters in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada than Republican voters are the kinds of voters that would likely vote on Election Day if they hadn’t prior. From the RNC:
· Many of the Democratic ballots are from high propensity voters who would almost certainly be voting on Election Day – meaning that President Obama is cannibalizing his turnout on November 6th. Governor Romney’s early voting effort has been, and will continue to be, focused on low propensity voters, which means his Election Day turnout will not be negatively impacted by the early vote program.
And more details:
Democrats Cannibalizing High-Propensity Voters
· Democrats are turning out significantly more of their reliable, high-propensity voters in absentee and early voting.
· Democrats have turned out almost 43 percent of their high propensity voters in Ohio, while Republicans have only turned out 27 percent.
· In Iowa, Democrats have turned out almost 43 percent of their high propensity voters, while Republicans have turned out only 29 percent.
· The story is the same in Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. The Democrats are diluting their ability to perform on Election Day because they are forcing their most reliable voters to cast absentee ballots or early vote weeks before Election Day.
Republicans will have more reliable voters available on Election Day and are spending our efforts turning out low propensity voters in the absentee and early voting periods.
And check out this chart from the RNC last Tursday: