According to exit polls, the partisan breakdown on Election Day was 38 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent. That gave Democrats an 8-point advantage — the same they enjoyed in 2008. (In 2004, Republicans had a 5-point advantage in the Buckeye state.)
So, as someone who defended questioning the scrutinizing the polls’ partisan breakdown in their samples, I decided to look at the most recent Ohio polls, and see if they accurately called the partisan breakdown. Here’s what I found:
Public Policy Polling D+8 (43 percent D., 35 percent R., 22 percent I./O.)
Columbus Dispatch D+4 (40 percent D., 36 percent R., 21 percent I.)
SurveyUSA D+5 (39 percent D., 34 percent R., 25 percent I.)
Gravis Marketing D+8 (42 percent D., 34 percent R., 24 percent I./O.)
NBC/WSJ/Marist D+9 (38 percent D., 29 percent R., 32 percent I.)
I admit it: when I saw the NBC/WSJ/Marist partisan breakdown, I was fairly confident that turnout on election Day would not mirror that. But Marist was only off by a point.