This week, Baldwin Wallace University released the results of a poll on Issue 1, the ballot proposition that would place legal abortion in the Ohio state constitution. At first glance, the results should disappoint pro-lifers. The poll found that 58.2 percent of respondents plan to support Issue 1, with only 33.5 percent opposed. This poll has been covered by number of Ohio media outlets, including Cleveland.com, Spectrum News, and WCMH TV in Columbus, OH.
Pro-lifers should certainly be concerned about this 24-percentage-point deficit. However, we should not despair. This is for several reasons. First, ballot propositions tend to lose support as the election draws near. Also, undecided voters usually break vote against ballot propositions, and so the gap is likely smaller than the poll indicates.
Additionally, only 569 people were surveyed about Issue 1. That is a relatively small sample size. Furthermore, the question about Issue 1 framed it as a ballot measure that would “protect reproductive freedom.” The survey question mentioned contraception, fertility, and miscarriage care before it even mentioned abortion. This likely skewed the responses in favor of Issue 1.
This Baldwin Wallace poll contains some additional information that pro-lifers should find interesting. It included some questions about abortion attitudes and found that 42.6 percent of registered voters in Ohio thought that abortion should at most be legal in cases of rape, incest or, life of the mother. An additional 30.4 percent supported some limits on abortion. Only 24.1 percent of Ohio voters believe that abortion should always be legally permitted.
In the closing weeks of the campaign, Issue 1 opponents need to effectively engage the roughly 30 percent of voters who think that abortion should be legal but still support some limits. These voters likely support many Ohio pro-life laws that Issue 1 would jeopardize. These would include the 24-hour waiting period, the parental-involvement law, and limits on taxpayer funding of abortion through Medicaid. Indeed, persuading ambivalent voters to oppose ballot propositions that would make abortion policy more permissive remains a key challenge for pro-lifers in Ohio and elsewhere.