Once Again, More Evidence That Putin Is Already at War with NATO

The Morning Jolt, reporting from Riga, Latvia, back in May:

And a Latvian official who deals with national security issues speculated that perhaps a year or so after the Ukraine war “stops being a hot war,” Russia could regenerate its capabilities sufficiently to at least threaten an invasion of one or more of the Baltic states.

This Latvian official also observed, “Russians can miscalculate,” and even if NATO’s forces were thoroughly prepared to repel a Russian invasion attempt, the decision-makers in Moscow may not realize it or may not want to believe it. After all, Russia initially believed it would complete its annexation of Ukraine within a matter of months. Deterrence doesn’t just require being prepared to fend off a threat; it requires the other guy to know and believe you’re prepared to fend off his threat.

Earlier this month, Latvian Armed Forces Commander Major General Kaspars Pudāns said in an interview with the German state-funded television network Deutsche Welle, “If I were sitting in the Kremlin, I would say that my window of opportunity is 2027-2029, while NATO is not ready. Since after 2030, this window may close, Russia will become stronger, but the same applies to Europe and NATO.”

The Wall Street Journal, Friday morning:

Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion.

The U.S. had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t provoke a North Atlantic Treaty Organization country while he is still fighting in Ukraine. But that assessment changed earlier this year, the U.S. officials said, as Putin is increasingly squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home to secure a victory. Kyiv’s drones are inflicting growing damage on both Russia’s army and oil industry, while Putin’s forces are making smaller gains at the front line amid heavy casualties.

U.S. and European leaders increasingly see signs of Russia conducting probing attacks to test NATO’s resolve, including Russian cruise missiles that have landed in Poland and drones flown into Romania.

Putin’s goal in attacking NATO during a continuing war with Ukraine, if it happens, would be to fracture the alliance, the U.S. officials said.

With Putin struggling to secure the gains he wants in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials have been analyzing whether Moscow intends to escalate its aggressive actions toward European allies in the near term, the people said. The concern is that Putin may become more dangerous when backed into a corner, the U.S. officials said.

The possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or sending unmarked armed groups to occupy territory to a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank. The time frame for any move by Russia is estimated to happen between this fall and 2029, according to the U.S. intelligence assessments.

The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited land incursion—is low, but gets higher as time goes on, according to the reports. Such a move has always been considered extremely unlikely because it would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense. But Article 5 isn’t as clear about NATO’s response to cyber or hybrid threats.

Senator Roger Wicker, R-Miss., Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, issued a statement Thursday:

“Vladimir Putin’s military failures in Ukraine have led him to undertake unprecedented acts of aggression against our NATO allies. Last week, a Russian cruise missile impacted on Polish territory, and armed Russian drones were shot down over Romanian airspace. This was no accident. These tactics were a deliberate escalation aimed at coercing NATO to end its support of Ukraine. Putin’s schemes will not work. The United States stands with Poland, Romania, and its NATO allies and will continue to support Ukraine.

Putin’s reckless probing of Polish and Romanian territory coincides with the decision to withdraw U.S. brigade combat teams from each country over the last nine months — a decision I strongly disagreed with. Make no mistake, I support burden sharing and increased defense spending within NATO. President Trump deserves enormous credit for securing agreement among NATO allies to spend 5% of its gross domestic product on defense by 2035.

It will take time to translate this spending into military capability. The ongoing force posture review in Europe must account for this reality and for the risk that a wounded and failing Putin might seek to change his circumstances through opportunistic aggression in Europe. Putin only understands strength and cost imposition. This is why the Senate is working to pass the Sanctioning of Russia Act.

Sure, sending any Russian troops into the territory of a NATO country would be an act of war, and would probably trigger an overwhelming response. But does the Russian government recognize that?  Or does Vladimir Putin feel lucky, and suspect that Donald Trump would not want to get involved, and downplay any Russian aggression? The president is already downplaying the significance of Russia’s targeting assistance to the Iranian military.

But forget the potential threat in the near future for a moment, and consider the threat that is already here. Last week German police found a drone carrying explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport; U.S. intelligence assessed the drone “likely belongs to the Russian government.”

Authorities also are looking into a second unidentified object that collided with a cargo plane after the plane aborted its landing at Leipzig due to the closure. The plane suffered minor damage and landed safely at a nearby airport.

This is no longer about potential or future attacks; this is about current attacks.

Germany’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt on Sunday warned that hybrid warfare attacks had become a daily threat to the country.

“We’re not at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare,” Dobrindt told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag following the discovery of a drone carrying explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport.

“Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, or covert operations by foreign powers aimed at destabilizing Germany or inflicting direct harm are a constant reality,” Dobrindt said.

As I concluded my big piece from earlier this year, “Russia is at war with NATO. The question is simply whether or not we want to acknowledge it.”