If it is true that Bush has doubled his support among blacks, that spells terrible news for Kerry. You have to figure that if Bush could actually swing 18% of the vote to him that means enthusiasm for Kerry has to be low. For every African-American who supports Bush there have to be two or three who are at least ambivalent about Kerry. It’s simply hard to imagine a broad political trend in which Bush’s support among blacks doubles, but the Democrats still manage to get the black voter-turnout they need.