One other thought, Charlie: Depending upon who Joe Biden picks and how the nomination process goes, I could see the administration enjoying a few weeks of good press coverage – which could actually hurt Democrats in the long run. A good old-fashioned Supreme Court nomination fight will feel really “normal” for politics and government, compared to the Omicron wave and the testing shortage, runaway inflation and high food and gas prices, empty shelves and the supply chain crisis, the monthly updates on migrants attempting to cross the southern border, the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, and so on. Barring some sort of disastrous selection, Biden is likely to get his nominee confirmed, on probably a party line or near-party line vote.
Biden and his team might start to think they’ve scored a big win, righted the ship, endured the worst of the storm, and so on.
But other than satisfying some progressive activists, replacing Stephen Breyer with a new, younger, like-minded justice won’t have done much. Appointing nominees to the nation’s highest court is an important duty, but the Supreme Court isn’t really what’s bothering Americans right now. (Americans, by and large, don’t pay a lot of attention to the Supreme Court. In the Marquette University poll out today, “the public is not familiar with most justices. Only 21 percent are able to express an opinion of Justice Stephen Breyer. The highest percentage, 55 percent, give an opinion about Justice Clarence Thomas, while 38 percent offer an opinion of Chief Justice John Roberts.”)
What are Americans thinking and worrying about? Well, that recent Pew Research poll is devastating for the incumbent party in Washington. Just among Democrats, 54 percent say the federal budget deficit has gotten worse than a year ago, 62 percent say the availability of consumer goods has gotten worse, 77 percent say the cost of housing has gotten worse, 78 percent say gasoline prices have gotten worse, and 86 percent say prices for food and consumer goods have gotten worse. Again, those are the numbers among Democrats; even higher percentages of Republicans concurs things are worse than a year ago.
Based upon how Biden has presided so far – insisting that inflation was transitory, that the Taliban wasn’t going to overrun Afghanistan, and that he’s overperformed – Biden is extremely likely to boast and act like getting a Supreme Court nominee confirmed is a spectacular achievement. Most Americans are likely to yawn or nod and then say, “great, but I can’t afford as much as I used to, and it costs an arm and a leg to fill up my tank, and the stores don’t have the products I’m used to seeing there, and every business I walk into is short-staffed, and…” It will be just another case of Joe Biden’s priorities not matching the electorate’s priorities.