Tina Kotek, the Democrat running for Oregon governor, has trailed her Republican opponent, Christine Drazan, in almost every poll for over a month. Analysts have repeatedly downgraded Democrats’ chances in the race, even though Oregonians haven’t elected a Republican governor since 1982 — Cook Political Report currently rates it a “Toss Up.” Part of the reason for the GOP’s historically good shot this year is that Oregon’s outgoing Democratic governor, Kate Brown, has routinely polled as the least popular governor in the country. Until recently, Kotek — who served as the majority speaker in the Oregon House before launching her bid for the governor’s mansion — was a close ally of Brown’s. She was reluctant to criticize the governor in the initial days of her campaign and touted Brown’s endorsement — still listed on Kotek’s website as of this writing — with a quote from the incumbent about her would-be replacement’s career-long advocacy “for working families” this summer.
But as the polls tighten, and Kotek’s shot at the Oregon governorship — once viewed as a shoo-in — looks increasingly uncertain, that friendliness has disappeared. In the last governor’s debate, held on October 19, Kotek repeatedly sought to distance herself from her former ally, even attacking her by name on multiple occasions. That has coincided with a slate of advertisements and public statements from Kotek explicitly positioning herself as an opponent of Brown’s policies on key issues. Today, Oregon Public Broadcasting reported:
“Almost three years ago I called for a homelessness state of emergency,” Kotek says in an ad released on Oct. 14 that looks like it was shot on a cell phone. “Gov. Kate Brown did nothing…. On day one, I will do what Kate Brown wouldn’t. I will get people the help they need to move off the streets.”
The new spot represents perhaps Kotek’s strongest public denouncement of the current governor, with whom she worked closely as House speaker. It comes as Kotek works to lock up swing votes in the tightest governor’s race in more than a decade.
But the message isn’t unique. Another ad from Kotek’s camp shows a photo of Brown alongside Christine Drazan, the Republican candidate in the race, as a narrator intones bleakly: “Tina Kotek called for a homeless state of emergency nearly three years ago. Not Kate Brown. Not Christine Drazan.”
And Kotek recently denounced Brown’s policies on more than homelessness, telling the Oregonian/OregonLive editorial board: “Oregon can do great things. We have not had the leadership in our governor’s office over the last several years to make that happen, and I am tired of it.”
On top of that, Kotek released another ad today in which the gubernatorial hopeful intones: “Nobody in Oregon would say, let’s keep doing exactly what we’ve been doing. Certainly not me. I called for a homelessness state of emergency nearly three years ago, while Kate Brown did nothing.”
We certainly don’t need a red state take over to clean up the damn trash. pic.twitter.com/fGLr8Yql7L
— Tina Kotek (@TinaKotek) October 25, 2022
From a political standpoint, Kotek’s pivot makes sense. But Oregonians could be forgiven for wondering if the rhetorical shift is anything other than political opportunism; after all, Kotek had months of campaigning to distance herself from Brown and only appears to have realized that the governor’s policies on issues like homelessness were destructive when the polling made it politically advantageous to do so. In 2018, Kotek beamed, “Gov. Brown’s progressive agenda…should be replicated across the country.” I wonder what changed?